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MBUS 804 — Session 3

Implementing Organizational Change

Queen's Smith AMBA 2026 · Prof. Peter Richardson · Participation-Ready Prep
Fast Forward: 3 Winning Conditions Anand & Barsoux: 5 Quests Bonchek & Libert: Mental Models Roots & Shopify
01 — Fast Forward: Organizational Change in 100 Days

The Core Argument: Change Must Be Fast and Decisive

Murray & Richardson's central claim is that effective organizational change is not a slow, linear process — it is a rapid, orchestrated campaign. The 100-day model creates urgency, breaks the organization's natural inertia, and generates momentum before resistance can consolidate. Slow change is often no change.

Urgency + Commitment → Winning Conditions (Guidance · Speed · Momentum)
The two preconditions must exist before the three winning conditions can be activated

Preconditions: Before You Can Win, You Must Believe Change Is Unavoidable

Urgency

  • The CEO genuinely believes the status quo is unsustainable
  • A credible burning platform — not manufactured, but real
  • External threat or competitive shift that employees can see
  • Without urgency, the organization treats change as optional

Commitment

  • The CEO is personally and publicly committed — not delegating change to HR or consultants
  • Leadership team is aligned; no silent dissenters at the top
  • Resources (time, money, attention) visibly allocated to the change
  • Without commitment, urgency dissipates into memos and task forces

The Three Winning Conditions

Condition 1

Guidance

Clear, unambiguous direction from the top. People must know where they are going and why — not a vision statement, but a concrete picture of the future state and what must change to get there.

  • CEO articulates destination specifically
  • Strategic priorities are ranked — no "and, and, and"
  • Leadership team modelling the new behaviours
  • Honest diagnosis shared with the organization
Condition 2

Speed

Change actions happen faster than resistance can organize. The first 100 days are critical — decisions made, structures changed, people moved. Delay = signal that change is not real.

  • Early decisions taken before opposition solidifies
  • New structures and roles announced quickly
  • Visible departures where alignment is absent
  • Timeline communicated and held to
Condition 3

Momentum

Early wins that demonstrate change is real, not reversible, and producing results. Momentum shifts the organization from "wait and see" to "get on board before it's too late."

  • Quick wins chosen deliberately — visible, credible, early
  • Progress communicated broadly and frequently
  • Resisters identified and managed, not tolerated
  • Celebration of new behaviours reinforces the direction
The 100-day logic: Organizations have institutional antibodies. The longer change takes, the more time resisters have to regroup, reframe the narrative, and wait out the CEO. Speed breaks this cycle. Murray & Richardson argue that a change that takes two years could often have been done in six months — and the extra 18 months are spent fighting the resistance that slow change enabled.

Diagnostic: Which Winning Condition Is Missing?

SymptomMissing ConditionWhat to Do
People don't know what the change is or why it's happeningGuidanceCEO must communicate the burning platform and destination — repeatedly and specifically
Change is announced but nothing structural happens for monthsSpeedMake immediate, visible structural moves — appointments, departures, budget shifts
People are watching to see if this is "real" or another initiative that will fadeMomentumIdentify and celebrate early wins; publicly recognize early adopters; remove visible blockers
All three symptoms present simultaneouslyPreconditions: Urgency and/or CommitmentDo not launch change until the CEO is personally ready — a half-committed change campaign is worse than no change
The change failure trap: Most organizations don't lack change plans — they lack the conditions for change to stick. A 200-page transformation roadmap with no urgency, no speed, and no early wins is just an expensive shelf document. The Fast Forward model forces leaders to focus on the conditions, not the contents.
02 — Anand & Barsoux: What Everyone Gets Wrong About Change Management

The Real Problem Is Misdiagnosis, Not Poor Execution

N. Anand and Jean-Louis Barsoux (HBR, Nov–Dec 2017) studied 62 corporate transformations over four years. Their finding is uncomfortable: poor execution is only part of the problem. About 75% of change efforts fail — and a major but underdiagnosed cause is that organizations pursue the wrong change to begin with.

75%
of change efforts fail to deliver benefits or are abandoned entirely
3
alignment factors that determine success: Catalyst, Quest, Capabilities
5
prototypical transformation quests — pick one uncontested priority

The Three-Part Alignment Framework

Failing to examine and align these three factors drastically reduces the odds of producing lasting change:

The JC Penney Cautionary Tale

CEO Ron Johnson's mistake: Walked in and immediately redesigned stores and eliminated discounts to attract "younger, trendier" customers. Sales fell 25%. Stock dropped 50%.

The real problem: JCP's actual crisis was the misalignment of in-store and online operations — customers couldn't find in stores what was showcased online. That was the right quest (Nimbleness + Customer Focus). Johnson pursued the wrong quest (brand repositioning) at the wrong time.

The fix: Successor Marvin Ellison fixed the plumbing first — channel integration, app redesign, same-day pickup — then rebuilt brand relevance. From seventh-largest global retailer to third.

Factor 1: The Catalyst — Pursuing Value

Every transformation is triggered by the pursuit of value. The trap is focusing too narrowly on either efficiency (cutting) or growth (investing) rather than both simultaneously.

Efficiency-Only Trap

  • Norske Skog: became expert at "shrinking into a science" — praised for cost cuts, but never found a way to rebound
  • Cuts so deep they hollow out capabilities, sap morale, remove the slack that fuels new endeavours
  • Result: perpetual turnaround mode, no growth
  • Stora Enso (rival): also restructured but simultaneously reinvented as renewable materials company — share price tripled

Growth-Only Trap

  • Lego (2000): freewheeling innovation experiment nearly drove company to bankruptcy
  • Growth investment without governance discipline loses the organization
  • Lego (2006 recovery): cross-functional Executive Innovation Governance Group kept innovation "around the box"
  • HP: ill-fated acquisitions of Compaq, EDS, Autonomy — growth without strategic discipline

Factor 2: The Quest — Choosing Your Direction

Organizations must identify one compelling, uncontested transformation priority. "All of the above" is a recipe for failure. Five prototypical quests:

Quest 1
Global Presence
Reconfigure operating model
Quest 2
Customer Focus
Reconfigure customer experience
Quest 3
Nimbleness
Reconfigure business processes
Quest 4
Innovation
Reconfigure R&D partners
Quest 5
Sustainability
Reconfigure resources
QuestKey EnablersKey Blockers
Global PresenceRewiring systems to leverage global capabilities; using diversity as competitive advantageAcquiring weak businesses in haste; honouring dominant culture only; failing to integrate talent globally
Customer FocusTraining workforce to understand customer needs; reframing customer relations to learn rather than close dealsEntrenched culture pushing products not solutions; not coordinating front and back office for seamless delivery
NimblenessDetecting and responding to environmental changes; learning to prototype rapidly and institutionalize what worksBlind spots producing an incomplete picture; responding too slowly due to red tape; taking too long to cut losses
InnovationCollaborating across full innovation spectrum; articulating innovation needs; creating win-win with partnersEntrenched product-pushing culture; continuing to depend on former intermediaries
SustainabilityEngaging all stakeholders; leveraging sustainability as strategic advantage; top-team commitmentUndermeasuring progress; greenwashing; failing to balance efficiency and sustainability

Factor 3: The Capabilities — Developing Leaders Aligned to the Quest

Transformation journeys run out of steam when leadership development is not matched to the chosen quest. The Lenovo vs. Acer case is instructive:

Lenovo — Quest Aligned Leadership

  • Quest: Global Presence
  • By 2012, top team of 9 represented 6 nationalities
  • Chinese CEO Yang Yuanqing relocated to the US
  • Monthly meetings rotated to different strategic markets
  • Elevated cultural diversity VP to C-suite
  • Result: rose from 4th to 1st in global PC market share

Acer — Quest Misaligned Leadership

  • Same quest: Global Presence
  • Board rejected CEO Lanci's plans to hire foreign talent
  • 2010: 6 foreigners among top 24 executives; by 2014: 3 of 23
  • Board went from 2 foreign directors to none
  • 2016: hired founder's son to head cloud services
  • Result: slipped from 3rd to 6th in global market share

The Three Transformation Traps

Trap 1

Neglecting the Quest

Value generation and leadership development become ends in themselves — generic efforts not linked to transformation. Infosys developed an admired leadership development program but failed to tie it to transformational business needs — ultimately forced to bring in an outside CEO.

Trap 2

Seduced by the Wrong Quest

The board or CEO is led astray by a forceful vision (Ron Johnson at JCP), competitor copying, or consultant recommendations. Home Depot's Bob Nardelli pursued construction professionals — adjacent market distraction from core slumping store sales. When he resigned, the strategy immediately reversed.

Trap 3

Focusing on Multiple Quests

Carrefour CEO Lars Olofsson (2009): launched 7 simultaneous strategic initiatives — innovation, customer engagement, agility, global expansion, and more. Result: confusion, 53% share price drop, Olofsson gone in under 2 years. His successor Georges Plassat stripped everything back to one focus: domestic core retail.

The key diagnostic question before any transformation: Are we pursuing value through the right quest, matched to our actual leadership capabilities? The organization that can answer this clearly — and align all three — has a transformation capability that becomes its only enduring competitive advantage.
03 — Bonchek & Libert: Change Your Mental Model Before Your Business Model

Every New Business Model Was First a New Mental Model

Mark Bonchek and Barry Libert (HBR, 2017) argue that the central failure of most transformation efforts is this: organizations copy business models without copying the mental models that make those business models work. The result is structural change without the thinking required to sustain it.

The Three-Model Alignment

Step 1 — Change First

Mental Model

How leaders think about the business — who the competition is, what business they're in, what success means

Step 2 — Then Change

Business Model

What the company does — how it creates, delivers, and captures value; its structure, processes, and activities

Step 3 — Close the Loop

Measurement Model

What the organization measures as success — KPIs that must reflect the new mental and business model, not the old one

The failure pattern: Organizations change business model (structure, process, product) without changing mental model (how leaders think) or measurement model (what they track). The result: new activities governed by old thinking, measured by old metrics — and old thinking always wins.

The Southwest Airlines Case Study

Southwest Airlines maintained 43 consecutive years of profitability and created an entirely new market category. Traditional carriers (United, American, Delta) tried to copy Southwest's business model with Continental Lite, Ted by United, and Song by Delta. All failed.

Traditional Carriers (Failed Copies)
  • Mental: "We fly airplanes that carry people"
  • Mental: Compete for airline market share
  • Measure: Aircraft utilization
  • Measure: Load factors, on-time departure
  • Result: Copied costs, not culture. All exited.
Dimension
Southwest + JetBlue (Got It Right)
  • Mental: "We serve people using airplanes"
  • Mental: Create a new market — people who wouldn't otherwise fly
  • Measure: Passenger satisfaction + culture strength
  • Measure: How well we serve passengers
  • Result: Consistent profitability; JetBlue leads industry in loyalty

The Business Model Migration Map

Libert's research shows companies are migrating from asset and service models toward technology and network models — which are more profitable, grow faster, and are more rewarded by markets:

Business Model TypeCore Mental ModelWhat You MeasureExamples
Asset-Based"We own things and deploy them"Asset utilization, inventory turns, ROICAirlines, hotels, manufacturers
Service-Based"We deliver expertise and outcomes"Billable hours, client retention, NPSConsulting, banking, healthcare
Technology-Based"We create tools that scale"Software release cadence, uptime, usersTesla (vs. VW), GE's Predix platform
Network-Based"We connect and orchestrate others"Assets on platform, network density, ecosystem healthUber, Amazon, Airbnb, Shopify

Key Cases: Mental Model in Action

VW vs. Tesla
VW: "car manufacturer using technology" → measures model-year changes
Tesla: "technology company making cars" → measures software releases and OTA updates. Same EV market, completely different mental model. Musk: "Most cars don't improve over time. The Model S gets faster and better."
Amazon vs. Traditional Retail
Traditional retail: measures same-store sales (business goals)
Amazon: 80% of metrics measure how well they help customers achieve their goals. Mental model: "technologist empowering merchants" vs. "merchant using technology."
GE's Platform Pivot
Old mental model: industrial conglomerate making products
New mental model: "platform company and application company" — key metric is assets on platform (not margin/revenue growth). Immelt: "Analytics is as core over next 20 years as material science was over past 50."
The "Platform Envy" Warning
Many companies want Uber/Amazon/Airbnb's business model
Copying a platform business model without the platform mental model (orchestrating others, not owning things) leads to the same failure as the airline copycats. New structures governed by old thinking = expensive failure.
The sequence matters: You must change how you think (mental model) BEFORE or alongside changing what you do (business model), then change what you measure (measurement model) to close the loop. Bonchek & Libert's framework is a prerequisite check for any transformation: Does the leadership team's thinking actually match the new model they're pursuing?
Link to Fast Forward: Fast Forward focuses on the conditions to move fast. Bonchek & Libert add the prerequisite: moving fast in the wrong mental direction accelerates failure. Guidance (Winning Condition 1) requires the right mental model — not just a clear destination, but a clear and correct way of thinking about the business. Speed without the right mental model is a faster path to the wrong place.
04 — Case: Roots Canada — Retail Heritage Brand in Transformation

The Challenge: A Heritage Brand Navigating a Structural Retail Shift

Roots Canada (TSX: ROOT) was founded in 1973 by Michael Budman and Don Green with a simple premise: comfortable, quality Canadiana. For decades the brand was synonymous with leather goods, cabin sweatpants, and an outdoor-meets-heritage aesthetic. The challenge Roots faces is not a brand problem — it's a structural retail transformation problem.

What Roots Walked Into (Pre-Transformation)

  • Over-indexed on brick-and-mortar: 100+ stores in Canada, 115+ in Asia
  • Mall-based retail model under structural pressure from declining foot traffic
  • Underdeveloped e-commerce and digital infrastructure
  • Pandemic accelerated 5-year shifts in consumer behaviour in 12 months
  • IPO'd at $12/share in 2017; share price suffered through 2019–2020
  • Leadership transition: CEO Meghan Roach took over in 2020

Strategic Assets Roots Brings

  • Genuine brand equity — 50+ years of Canadian cultural identity
  • Olympics and Team Canada association (made uniforms since 1998 Nagano)
  • Strong loyalist customer base with high repeat purchase rate
  • International brand recognition, particularly in Asia (China, Taiwan)
  • Direct-to-consumer capability (own stores) — no intermediary dependency
  • Vertical integration: design, manufacture, sell

Applying the Frameworks: Diagnosing Roots

Anand & Barsoux — Quest Diagnosis

Catalyst: The pandemic-accelerated collapse of mall traffic and a brand that was generating insufficient digital revenue. Both efficiency (store rationalization) and growth (digital investment) required simultaneously.

Right Quest: Nimbleness (reconfigure business processes — build digital capability, speed up inventory response) + Customer Focus (deepen understanding of the Roots loyalist and serve them wherever they shop).

The Trap to Avoid: Being seduced by the wrong quest — doubling down on Asian store expansion (global presence) when the structural problem is channel and process agility at home. JCP's Ron Johnson equivalent would be: opening more physical locations while the digital moat widens.

Leadership Capability Alignment: Roach's mandate was to modernize operations — a Nimbleness quest requires leaders who think in terms of test-and-learn, digital KPIs, and speed. Roots needed to add those capabilities at the executive level.

Fast Forward — Winning Conditions Assessment

Guidance: Roach's strategic priorities were clear — fix the digital gap, rationalize underperforming stores, and protect the brand's premium position. The destination was stated: "digital-first, omnichannel, premium brand." Guidance condition largely met.

Speed: Store closures executed; digital investment accelerated. But retail transformations in heritage brands carry cultural weight — speed is constrained by brand positioning risk. A Roots store closure is not just an operational decision; it's a brand signal. Speed condition: partially met with structural trade-offs.

Momentum: E-commerce growth during 2020–2021 provided early validation. The challenge is sustaining momentum through the post-pandemic normalization when digital growth rates decelerate. Early wins must translate into structural capability, not just pandemic tailwinds.

Bonchek & Libert — Mental Model Check

Old mental model: "We are a retailer with a heritage brand." Success = same-store sales, comparable-store growth, number of store locations. Competition = other lifestyle retailers.

Required mental model: "We are a lifestyle brand that uses retail, digital, and wholesale channels to serve loyal customers wherever they are." Success = customer lifetime value, digital revenue share, brand health metrics, repeat purchase rate.

The measurement model shift: Moving from store-level metrics to customer-level metrics. Roach has oriented Roots around DTC (direct-to-consumer) — this requires measuring how well Roots serves its customers, not how well it fills its stores.

AI Angle for Team Presentations

The mandatory AI element for Roots should address a specific, high-value use case rather than generic "AI will help us":

  • Demand forecasting and inventory optimization: Roots carries significant SKU complexity across leather goods, apparel, and accessories. ML-driven demand prediction reduces overstock in declining store channels while ensuring digital inventory availability — directly addressing the Nimbleness quest.
  • Customer lifetime value prediction: Identify which customers are highest-value loyalists, predict churn risk, and personalize re-engagement. Directly supports the Customer Focus quest and DTC digital investment.
  • Dynamic digital merchandising: Personalized homepage, email, and app experiences based on purchase history and browsing behaviour — McDonald's Dynamic Yield playbook, applied to heritage lifestyle retail.
Watch out for greenwashing the AI angle: Richardson rewards concrete, specific AI applications with clear links to the strategic quest. "We'll use AI to improve everything" is the digital equivalent of bad strategy — Rumelt's fluff. Name the specific KPI that AI would optimize.
05 — Case: Shopify — From Tool to Commerce Infrastructure

A Transformation Story That Starts With a Mental Model Shift

Shopify (TSX/NYSE: SHOP) is one of the most instructive transformation stories precisely because it begins with the Bonchek & Libert insight: Tobi Lütke didn't build Shopify to be a software company. He built it because he couldn't find software good enough to run his snowboard shop. The mental model was never "SaaS vendor" — it was always "infrastructure for commerce."

The Origin — Mental Model First

  • 2004: Lütke, Weinand, and Lake try to sell snowboards online. Existing tools are terrible.
  • Lütke builds the software himself — launches as Shopify platform in 2006
  • Mental model from day one: "We build the tools so others can succeed in commerce"
  • Not: "We run e-commerce stores." But: "We give entrepreneurs the infrastructure to run their own."
  • Lütke: "Think about doing for a million businesses what Amazon did for one."

Business Model Evolution (3 Phases)

  • Phase 1: SaaS subscriptions — monthly fees for store hosting, themes, apps
  • Phase 2: Merchant Solutions — Shopify Payments, Capital, Shipping (now >70% of revenue)
  • Phase 3: Platform/Ecosystem — Shopify Plus (enterprise), Markets (international), B2B wholesale, Shop Pay network effects
  • Each phase expanded the mental model — from tool → solution → operating system of commerce

Applying the Frameworks: Diagnosing Shopify

Bonchek & Libert — The Mental Model is the Strategy

The mental model shift that drove everything: Lütke reframed Shopify not as a software company (asset-based thinking) but as a network platform (network-based thinking). "We are arming the rebels" — merchants who want to compete with Amazon, not join it. This reframing determined every product decision, partnership, and investment.

Measurement model alignment: Shopify measures Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) — not just Shopify's own revenue, but the total commerce flowing through merchant stores. This is a network metric (how much value the ecosystem creates) not a software metric (how many licenses are sold). It signals the mental model: Shopify wins when its merchants win.

The Bonchek lesson: Shopify's competitors (BigCommerce, WooCommerce, Squarespace) often have similar feature sets but a different mental model — "software vendor" not "commerce infrastructure provider." That gap in mental model is why Shopify's ecosystem is orders of magnitude larger.

Anand & Barsoux — Quest: Innovation + Nimbleness

Shopify's quest: Unusual case — successfully pursuing both Innovation (reconfigure R&D partnerships via app ecosystem, APIs, and developer community) and Nimbleness (reconfigure business processes — rapid product release cycles, launch-test-iterate culture).

How they avoid the multi-quest trap: The two quests are fused into one coherent focus — "build the fastest, most extensible commerce platform." They're not separately managed; the same organizational capability (fast, developer-centric product teams) serves both.

The 2022 test: When pandemic tailwinds faded, Shopify laid off ~10% of the workforce. Lütke admitted publicly: "I made the wrong bet. I thought the pandemic had permanently accelerated e-commerce adoption by 5–10 years. It did not." This is a textbook Anand & Barsoux misreading of the catalyst — confusing a temporary demand surge for a permanent structural shift.

Fast Forward — Winning Conditions

Guidance: Extraordinary. Lütke's vision — "arm the rebels," "be the infrastructure of commerce" — is one of the clearest and most consistent strategic narratives in Canadian corporate history. Every employee, product decision, and investor communication is anchored to it.

Speed: Shopify is structurally designed for speed — autonomous product teams, rapid release cycles, aggressive acquisition of capabilities (Deliverr for fulfillment, 6 River Systems for warehouse robots, Checkout blocks). Speed is a cultural norm, not a crisis response.

Momentum: The ecosystem flywheel creates compounding momentum: more merchants → more developers → better apps → more merchants. Each product launch creates visible wins for merchants, generating case studies that recruit the next wave.

AI Angle for Team Presentations

Shopify is already deeply AI-embedded — the AI angle should focus on where AI creates next-stage strategic advantage, not just what they've already done:

  • Shopify Sidekick (launched 2023): AI commerce assistant — helps merchants with product descriptions, analytics interpretation, inventory decisions, and marketing copy. Competes with what large brands have in-house; democratizes it for the independent merchant. This is the Shopify mental model in AI form: give solo entrepreneurs the capabilities of an enterprise.
  • AI-powered fraud detection: Shopify Protect and Fraud Protect use ML to identify fraudulent orders — reducing chargebacks that erode merchant margins. A network-level AI benefit (data from millions of merchants trains a model no individual merchant could build).
  • Predictive inventory and demand signals: Shopify's data on billions of transactions enables ML-driven demand signals for merchants — "your products typically sell X in November; stock accordingly." Transforms Shopify from commerce infrastructure to intelligence infrastructure.
The Shopify insight worth saying in class: Shopify's transformation is not FROM something to something else — it's a deepening of the same mental model held since 2006. This makes it unusual: most transformation cases involve a company that got the mental model wrong and needed to change it. Shopify is the case study for getting the mental model right from the start and compounding it over two decades.
06 — Discussion Hooks & Participation-Ready Lines

Questions That Will Come Up + How to Answer Them

Opening Provocation
"Anand and Barsoux say 75% of change efforts fail — and misdiagnosis is as much to blame as poor execution. Why is choosing the right thing to change so hard?"
Two reasons. First, change is always political — the quest that gets chosen is often the one that threatens the least powerful interests in the room, not the one that addresses the real strategic challenge. Ron Johnson at JCP could redesign stores because it was visible and exciting; fixing the online-offline plumbing was invisible and unglamorous. Second, the urgency of the moment creates a bias toward "doing something" — any visibly bold move — rather than doing the right thing. The Carrefour case is clean: seven initiatives in year one is the result of a CEO who couldn't make a choice and an organization that wouldn't demand he make one.
Fast Forward Hook
"Murray and Richardson say change must happen in 100 days. Isn't that unrealistic for a complex organization? What about getting buy-in?"
The 100-day model is deliberately provocative, but the underlying logic is sound: the longer change takes, the more opportunity resisters have to organize, the more the "wait and see" posture solidifies, and the more the CEO's credibility erodes. Buy-in, in the Murray & Richardson model, comes through momentum — early wins demonstrate that the change is real and working, which generates more buy-in than months of consultation ever could. The real question is not "is 100 days realistic?" but "which changes can be made in 100 days that would demonstrate irreversibility?" Those are the moves to make first. The rest follows.
Bonchek Pivot
"Has your organization ever copied a competitor's model without copying their mental model? What happened?"
This is where you bring your own experience. The pattern is almost always the same: the business model changes (structure, process, product) but the old mental model governs how decisions are actually made — and the old mental model always wins because it controls the measurement system. The airline case is clean: Continental Lite copied Southwest's routes and pricing but kept measuring aircraft utilization and market share. So managers made decisions to protect utilization, not passenger experience. New model, old brain. The same thing happens in digital transformations: companies launch apps while still measuring in-store traffic. If you still measure what you used to measure, you haven't actually changed.
Case Integration
"Does Roots' transformation meet the Fast Forward winning conditions? Which is strongest and which is weakest?"
Guidance is strongest — Roach articulated a clear DTC-digital-premium direction, and strategic priorities are ranked. Momentum is middle — pandemic tailwinds provided early wins in digital that demonstrated the direction was right. Speed is the weakest condition: Roots is constrained by the cultural weight of heritage brand decisions. A store closure is not just an operations call — it signals something to loyal customers about what the brand stands for. The risk is that the instinct to protect brand equity becomes a rationalization for insufficient speed, allowing legacy retail infrastructure to persist past its useful life while the digital transformation remains underfunded.
Challenge Question
"Shopify says they're 'arming the rebels.' Bonchek and Libert would say this is a mental model statement, not a business model statement. What's the difference, and why does it matter?"
The difference is: a business model statement describes what you do (we provide e-commerce software). A mental model statement describes how you think about what you do and why (we enable entrepreneurs to compete against Amazon). The reason it matters is that the mental model determines every subsequent decision when the business model faces a choice point. When Shopify had to decide whether to build a logistics network (Shopify Fulfillment Network), the mental model said: "if independent merchants need fulfillment to compete with Amazon, we build it" — regardless of whether it's a software company's natural scope. A "software vendor" mental model would have stopped at checkout. The "commerce infrastructure" mental model doesn't.
Framework Integration
"How do Fast Forward and Anand & Barsoux complement each other? Can you use both frameworks at once?"
Yes — they operate at different levels. Anand & Barsoux is a diagnostic tool: it tells you whether you're pursuing the right change (catalyst → quest → capabilities alignment). Fast Forward is an execution tool: it tells you how to drive the change once you've chosen the right one. Used together: first run the Anand & Barsoux audit to confirm you're chasing the right quest with the right leadership capabilities. Then apply Fast Forward's winning conditions to determine whether you have the urgency, commitment, guidance, speed, and momentum to execute. A company can have a perfectly diagnosed quest and still fail the Fast Forward test — and vice versa: a company can move fast toward the wrong quest.
07 — Exam-Ready Q&A

Likely Exam Questions with Model Answers

Q1: Apply Murray & Richardson's Fast Forward model to a company undergoing major transformation. Assess the three winning conditions and identify which is most frequently absent — and why.
Structure your answer:
1. Establish the context: Name the company, the transformation underway, and the urgency/commitment preconditions. If preconditions are absent, say so — the winning conditions cannot be activated without them.
2. Assess each condition explicitly:
  — Guidance: Is the destination clear and specific? Is the leadership team aligned? Is the CEO personally modelling the change?
  — Speed: What structural moves were made and how fast? What changed in the first 100 days? Who was moved/removed?
  — Momentum: What early wins were created? Were they communicated broadly? Did they shift the "wait and see" posture?
3. Identify the weakest condition and explain why it's missing: Most often it's Momentum — leaders announce change and make structural moves but don't design early wins deliberately. Or Speed — change is announced but decisions take months, giving resisters time to regroup.
4. Prescribe: What specific actions would strengthen the weakest condition? Be concrete — what would the CEO do in the next 30 days?
Q2: Using Anand & Barsoux's framework, diagnose a transformation failure. Was the problem the catalyst, the quest, or the capabilities — and how could you tell?
Structure your answer:
1. Name the failure and establish it as a failure: What was the transformation claim? What actually happened? What metrics demonstrate failure?
2. Diagnose using the three factors:
  — Catalyst problem: Did the organization focus only on efficiency or only on growth, rather than both? Did it mistake a temporary trigger for a structural shift?
  — Quest problem: Was the quest chosen the right one? Did it address the actual value gap? Was the organization pursuing multiple quests simultaneously? Was it seduced by a fashionable quest that didn't address the core issue?
  — Capabilities problem: Were leadership development efforts aligned to the quest? Did the leader roster have the skills the quest required?
3. Apply the five-quest taxonomy: Name which quest was actually needed, which quest was pursued, and explain the gap.
Examiner signal: The JCP, Carrefour, and Home Depot cases are clean examples. Apply the framework to one of these or to a company you know — the grader rewards framework application, not case memorization.
Q3: Bonchek & Libert argue leaders must change their mental model before changing their business model. What does this mean in practice, and how does it interact with Fast Forward's emphasis on speed?
Structure your answer:
1. Explain the Bonchek & Libert thesis: Mental model = how leaders think about the business (what it is, who the competition is, what success means). Business model = what the company does. Measurement model = what it tracks. All three must align. Changing the business model without the mental model leads to old thinking governing new structures — and old thinking always wins because it controls the measurement system.
2. Identify the tension with Fast Forward: Murray & Richardson say move fast — structural moves in the first 100 days. Bonchek & Libert say change how you think first — which takes time and cannot be mandated. The tension is real: if you move fast without the mental model shift, you get the Continental Lite failure. If you wait for the mental model to shift before moving, you may miss the window for change.
3. Resolve the tension: The resolution is that Fast Forward's Guidance condition implicitly requires the right mental model — you can't provide clear guidance without knowing how to think about the destination. For the CEO, the mental model shift must happen before or during the planning phase — not after the 100-day clock starts. The 100 days are for executing a change that the leadership team already knows how to think about. For the broader organization, momentum (early wins that demonstrate the new model works) is what shifts mental models at scale faster than any training program.
Q4: Apply all three frameworks (Fast Forward, Anand & Barsoux, Bonchek & Libert) to either Roots or Shopify. What does each framework reveal that the others miss?
Structure your answer (using Roots as example):
1. Fast Forward reveals: Which winning conditions are present and absent. For Roots: Guidance is strong (Roach's direction is clear), Speed is constrained (brand heritage creates caution around closures), Momentum is dependent on digital growth rates that may not persist post-pandemic. Fast Forward diagnosis: change is real but potentially too slow to outpace the structural shift in retail.
2. Anand & Barsoux reveals: Whether Roots is pursuing the right quest. Diagnosis: Nimbleness + Customer Focus is the right dual quest — not Global Presence (Asian store expansion at the wrong time). The transformation trap to avoid is being seduced by the Asian growth story when domestic digital capability is the actual constraint. Capabilities gap: executive team needs to add digital KPI literacy and DTC expertise.
3. Bonchek & Libert reveals: Whether the mental model has actually shifted. The key question: does Roots leadership now measure customer lifetime value and digital revenue share (new mental model) or store-level sales and comparable-store growth (old mental model)? If the measurement model hasn't changed, the mental model hasn't changed — and the transformation won't stick regardless of Guidance and Speed.
4. The integration: Each framework operates at a different level of abstraction. Bonchek & Libert is the deepest (mindset). Anand & Barsoux is strategic (what to change). Fast Forward is operational (how to move). A complete change management argument addresses all three levels.
08 — Cross-Session Connections

How Session 3 Connects to the Rest of the Course

← Session 1 (Rumelt)

Diagnosis precedes change: Rumelt's kernel — diagnosis, guiding policy, coherent actions — is the strategic content that Fast Forward's winning conditions must carry. Without a Rumelt-quality diagnosis, Guidance (Winning Condition 1) cannot be clear. The change will be fast and committed in the wrong direction.

← Session 2 (Greiner)

Phase determines change readiness: A company in a Greiner Phase 4 red tape crisis needs Fast Forward's Speed urgently — the system is actively choking itself. But the management model for Phase 5 (collaborative) requires the mental model shift Bonchek & Libert describe. Greiner tells you which crisis; Fast Forward tells you how to move; Bonchek tells you what to think differently.

← Session 2 (Kiron & Schrage)

KPI portfolio connects to mental model: Kiron & Schrage's insight — your KPI portfolio IS your strategy — is the Bonchek & Libert measurement model in action. Changing KPIs (from store-level to customer-level for Roots; from revenue to GMV for Shopify) is the measurement model shift that signals and sustains the mental model change.

→ Session 4 (Culture)

Mental model change IS culture change: Bonchek & Libert's mental model shift is exactly what culture change addresses. Session 4's readings on culture change speed and persuasion campaigns are the detailed implementation of how you change how people think — the prerequisite Bonchek & Libert identify but don't fully explain.

→ Sessions 5–7

The quest framework recurs: Anand & Barsoux's five quests apply to every major strategic decision session. Diversification (Session 5) is often a Global Presence or Innovation quest. Acquisitions (Session 6) must be matched to a quest or they destroy value. Turnarounds (Session 7) are forced Nimbleness quests under survival pressure.

Final Exam Thread

The change diagnosis framework: For your final exam company, run the full Session 3 diagnostic: What is the catalyst? Which quest is right? Does leadership have the capabilities? Is the mental model aligned to the business model? Are Fast Forward's winning conditions present? A complete answer to these questions is most of a strong final exam.

Assignment — Session 3: Shopify & Roots (Due: June 14, 2026)

Case Analysis: Implementing Strategic Change

Questions apply equally to both companies. Answers integrate Fast Forward (Ch.1), Anand & Barsoux, and Bonchek & Libert. Use the framework explicitly — graders reward it.

Q1: What has been the strategy behind each company's success over the last few decades?
Shopify: Built on deliberate counterpositioning against Amazon — while Amazon captures merchants as a channel, Shopify empowers merchants as a platform ("arming the rebels"). The core offering began as an accessible e-commerce enabler for SMBs who couldn't build their own stores, then compounded through an open app ecosystem: more developers → more merchants → more value, without Shopify owning every capability. The mental model: commerce infrastructure should be democratic, not owned by a single marketplace.

Roots: Built competitive advantage on authentic Canadian cultural identity — the brand is the strategy. Beaver canoe imagery, cottage-country lifestyle, and premium-casual positioning created cultural resonance competitors couldn't manufacture. The leather Cabin Bag and the sweatpant became category-defining products. The mental model: brand authenticity is a moat. You don't need to be everywhere; you need to be undeniably yourself.

Bonchek & Libert lens: Both companies succeeded because their founding mental model was aligned to their business model. Shopify's "platform, not pipeline" thinking and Roots' "brand, not fashion" thinking are strategic choices embedded in how leadership sees the world. The change challenge each faces is whether leadership can shift its mental model before the market forces the shift.
Q2 & Q3: How is each company currently positioned, and what industry changes suggest a strategy shift is needed?
Shopify — current position: Dominant SMB/mid-market e-commerce platform globally (~13% of global e-commerce flows through Shopify). Has expanded upmarket with Shopify Plus and into logistics with Shopify Fulfillment Network. The "storefront" is its core value proposition.

Shopify — leading indicators of change needed: Social commerce (TikTok Shop, Instagram Shopping) is the dominant structural shift — consumers now discover and convert within social apps, bypassing the standalone merchant store entirely. AI is lowering the cost and complexity of building competing commerce experiences, commoditizing Shopify's original moat. Agentic AI (AI agents executing purchases on behalf of consumers) threatens to make storefronts irrelevant. The "storefront" mental model must shift to "commerce OS."

Roots — current position: Premium-casual lifestyle brand with ~200 stores, primarily Canadian, with growing Asia Pacific presence (Taiwan, China). Brand remains aspirationally strong; retail model is under structural pressure.

Roots — leading indicators of change needed: The athleisure boom (Lululemon, Alo Yoga, Nike lifestyle) has fragmented the core casualwear market — Roots' price/quality positioning is squeezed from above (technical performance) and below (Uniqlo quality-at-price). Fast fashion commoditizes basic casualwear. Social commerce favors newer, more agile brands. The resale market is growing and Roots' quality heritage makes its products prime resale candidates — which could cannibalize new sales or be captured as brand extension.
Q4: What are the triggers for strategic change at each company?
Shopify: TikTok Shop's explosive growth in social commerce (trigger: a competitor building a merchant platform inside a social network at scale); Amazon's expansion into direct merchant services (trigger: the platform Shopify "arms rebels against" is now offering rebels its own tools); and agentic AI (trigger: the interface between consumer and product is being disintermediated in ways that bypass the Shopify storefront entirely).

Roots: Sustained revenue pressure and declining Canadian retail foot traffic (trigger: the retail model that built the brand is structurally uneconomic); Lululemon's explicit move into heritage casual positioning (trigger: the most dangerous competitor is now competing on Roots' cultural territory, not just price); and the growth of the resale market (trigger: the second-hand Roots sweatpant is now a cultural artifact — Roots doesn't own that economy).

Fast Forward lens (Ch.1): Neither company is in a classic crisis — but both are at Anand & Barsoux's "slow burn" stage where the urgency is not yet visible to the organization. The change challenge is creating urgency before crisis makes change reactive rather than strategic. Fast Forward's first condition — guidance — requires leadership to name the threat clearly and publicly before the organization believes it.
Q5: What is the impact of digital technology on each company and its industry over the next 5 years?
Shopify: AI-native commerce will redefine the competitive landscape. AI will manage inventory prediction, dynamic pricing, and customer personalization at a fraction of current costs — Shopify must embed AI deeply into the merchant workflow or be disintermediated by standalone AI tools merchants adopt independently. More fundamentally: agentic commerce (AI agents purchasing on behalf of consumers) may reduce the relevance of the "store" as a consumer touchpoint entirely — Shopify's strategic moat shifts from "the storefront" to "the backend infrastructure behind any channel." The five-year window is when this transition becomes structural rather than marginal.

Roots: AI-driven personalization will enable competitors to approximate Roots' "feel" at lower price points through data-driven product development. Social commerce (TikTok, Instagram) favors faster, more digitally native brands — Roots' content velocity and social presence lag modern DTC brands. The resale market (Depop, ThredUp) will grow to 15-20% of used apparel by 2030 — Roots' durable, high-quality goods are disproportionately represented in premium resale and the brand is not capturing any of that economic value. AI will also enable hyper-efficient supply chain management that lowers cost structures for competitors, reducing Roots' quality-at-price advantage.
Q6: What recommendations would you have for each company's executive team regarding future strategy?
Shopify — 4 recommendations:
  1. Redefine identity from "e-commerce platform" to "Commerce OS" — the backend infrastructure powering any merchant channel: social, marketplace, physical, agent-mediated. The storefront is just one touchpoint; the backend must power all of them.
  2. Invest aggressively in AI-powered merchant tools (inventory, acquisition, pricing) before standalone AI tools fragment the merchant workflow and break the platform lock-in.
  3. Deepen social commerce integrations — ensure Shopify remains the backend even when the front-end moves to TikTok, YouTube, or Instagram. The merchant relationship is the moat; don't let the platform shift sever it.
  4. Clarify the enterprise strategy — Shopify Plus competing with Salesforce Commerce Cloud requires a fundamentally different GTM, relationship model, and product roadmap from SMB Shopify. Run them as distinct strategic thrusts.
Roots — 4 recommendations:
  1. Lean hard into the heritage authenticity that DTC startups can't replicate — "Made in Canada" leather goods, the original Cabin Bag, 50 years of cultural provenance. Fast fashion cannot fake cultural history.
  2. Launch a certified pre-owned program (Roots Renewed) — capture resale economics, extend brand reach, and reinforce the quality narrative. This is the Patagonia model applied to Roots.
  3. Expand Asia Pacific as the primary growth engine — where Canadian heritage is exotic and aspirational, not taken for granted. The Taiwan/China licensing model has proven the concept; scale it with selective owned retail in Tokyo, Seoul, and Singapore.
  4. Right-size the Canadian retail footprint — close underperforming mall locations, invest in flagship experiences in key cultural markets. Fewer stores, higher brand equity per location.
Q7: If recommendations are followed, how will each company be different in 5 years?
Shopify in 2031: The Shopify "store" is no longer the primary customer interaction — most merchants present across social platforms, physical retail, and agent-mediated channels, but every order runs through Shopify's backend infrastructure, fulfillment network, and financial services layer. Revenue mix has diversified toward financial services (Shopify Capital, Balance, Payments) and logistics. The brand is invisible to consumers but essential to every merchant — the rails of global commerce, not the storefront.

Roots in 2031: A $700M brand with half its revenue from Asia Pacific markets, a thriving Roots Renewed certified pre-owned business, and a tightened Canadian retail presence anchored in cultural flagship locations. The Canadian mall presence has been rationalized by 40%. AI-powered e-commerce drives digital efficiency while the product line has narrowed and deepened on core heritage SKUs that no competitor can replicate. The brand is iconic, not ubiquitous — and that scarcity serves it.

Fast Forward Ch.1 lens on both: The 5-year vision is only achievable if the Winning Conditions are met now — guidance (clear direction from leadership), speed (early wins that build momentum before the market forces crisis), and momentum (visible behavioral change that signals the organization that the old model is over and the new one is real).
MBUS 804 · Session 3 Prep · Queen's Smith AMBA 2026